SoFi does not guarantee or endorse the products, information or recommendations provided in any third party website. “Maybe some of that is strike effect with some workers who might’ve been on temporary layoff, but it’s hard to tell,” Bunker said. The prime-age group participation rate declined, mostly because of men dropping out of the labor force. The transportation and warehousing industry suffered job losses as did the information industry, continuing to be weighed down by an ongoing strike in Hollywood. “This is a very Fed-friendly report,” said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.
The nonfarm payroll numbers are reported monthly to the public through the closely followed Employment Situation summary. Last month’s increase in hiring was led by the healthcare sector, which added 58,000 jobs, the bulk of them in ambulatory health care services. Employment in government increased by 51,000 positions, returning to its pre-pandemic level. The rise in government payrolls was driven by local government hiring. The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report on Friday also showed the unemployment rate rising to 3.9% last month, the highest level since January 2022, from 3.8 in September.
Nonfarm Payrolls Quick Analysis: US Dollar set to stay strong on supercharged job gains
A Treasury report earlier this week put expected fourth-quarter GDP growth at just 0.7%, and 1% for the full year 2024. Other leading gainers included government (51,000), construction (23,000) and social assistance (19,000). Leisure and hospitality, which has been a top job gainer, added 19,000 as well. For the rules and examples below, a 15-minute chart will be used, although the same rules apply to a five-minute chart. Signals may appear in different time frames, so remain consistent with one another.
The Fed’s preferred gauge showed the annual rate fell to 3.7% in September, an indication of steady but slow progress back to its goal. Markets reacted positively to the report, with futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average adding 100 points. IG International Limited is part of the IG Group and its ultimate parent company is IG Group Holdings Plc. IG International Limited receives services from other members of the IG Group including IG Markets Limited. Pete Rathburn is a copy editor and fact-checker with expertise in economics and personal finance and over twenty years of experience in the classroom.
The U.S. central bank held rates unchanged on Wednesday but left the door open to a further rise in borrowing costs in a nod to the economy’s resilience. Since March 2022, it has hiked its policy rate by 525 basis points to the current 5.25%-5.50% band. “A payroll increase of 150,000 is not bad, and 180,000 – what it would have been without the strike and ancillary impacts – is solid,” said Chris Low, chief economist at FHN Financial in New York. “So, no need to worry about excessive weakness at least until we see what the post-strike environment looks like.” The economic data calendar is relatively light in the world’s largest economy this week.
- This avoids jumping in too early and decreases the probability of being whipsawed out of the market before it has chosen a direction.
- This can give traders a heads up on which sectors of the economy may be primed for growth as companies in those sectors such as housing add jobs.
- However, market participants often pay attention because it provides a monthly snapshot of the U.S. economy’s health.
- To fulfill its full employment mandate, the bank looks at other labor-related figures.
- Compared to other major industries that saw a one-month employment decline in October, manufacturing saw the largest drop.
The labor force participation rate was 62.7% in October, similar to the 62.8% seen previously. The employment-population ratio was 60.2%, just below the 60.4% seen during the past few months. After two straight months of an unemployment rate at 3.8%, the unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.9%. The labor market was the major force pushing third-quarter U.S. gross domestic product growth to nearly 5%. “There is a large downward seasonal adjustment to payrolls in October, around 900,000,” said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup in New York. “The hiring figures will ultimately be somewhat depressed by strike activity, though the labor market is still likely to remain quite tight,” said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina.
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The United Auto Workers strikes were primarily responsible for the gap as the impasse meant a net loss of jobs for the manufacturing industry. Traders are expecting the October NFP report to show 179K net new jobs and average hourly earnings rising 0.3% m/m. The immediate market impact of this week’s jobs report may be smaller than… “We will see wage inflation becoming https://www.bigshotrading.info/ more of a problem, I wouldn’t say wage price spiral, but certainly that is one of the reasons why we’re not going to see a significant slowdown in the inflation rate from where we are.” But the jobless rate could still tick higher with more people entering the labor force due partly to confidence in availability of work and worries of an economic slowdown next year.
- In other words, if a strong move occurs before the inside bar, it is possible that a move could extinguish before a signal.
- The counts from ADP and the government can differ substantially, as they did in September when the Labor Department reported a gain of 336,000, more than three times the ADP estimate.
- The strikes have since ended, which could provide a lift to November’s payrolls.
- The Fed’s preferred gauge showed the annual rate fell to 3.7% in September, an indication of steady but slow progress back to its goal.
- Others disagreed, saying the hefty contracts would only become an issue for wage inflation if the Fed raised rates too high and choked off demand.
- Some of the industries that saw job growth from September to October included healthcare, construction, and leisure and hospitality.
The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report on Friday is expected to show labor market conditions steadily easing, with annual wage growth the smallest in nearly 2-1/2 years and significant growth in the supply of workers. There were also gains in social assistance as well as professional and business services payrolls, with temporary help jobs – a harbinger of future non farm payroll hiring – rebounding after eight straight monthly declines. Leisure and hospitality employment rose 19,000, well below the monthly average of 52,000 in the last 12 months. The risks of loss from investing in CFDs can be substantial and the value of your investments may fluctuate. 71% of retail client accounts lose money when trading CFDs, with this investment provider.
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Markets had been looking for a total of 9.5 million, according to a FactSet estimate. In related news Wednesday, the Labor Department said its closely watched Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey was little changed for September. Transparency is how we protect the integrity of our work and keep empowering investors to achieve their goals and dreams. And we have unwavering standards for how we keep that integrity intact, from our research and data to our policies on content and your personal data.